In our politicized world, some topics have become polarized, and are often avoided. However, when policies have a direct impact on the tools we use to do our jobs, they’re worth examining. Here, I’ll keep a tight focus on the potential effects of the new US tariffs on the video and production industry, and try to stay as neutral as possible, as an independent overseas observer. Here’s a Q&A.

So what are tariffs anyway?

A tariff is a fee paid by the importer of a good sourced overseas. If a manufacturer in China exports a camera to the US, they will have to pay 54% 104% 145% of the shipped cost of that product to the US government, at the point of entry, before the goods can enter the country. (The tariff was actively increased from 54% to 104% on 9 April, and then to 145% soon after.)

What about the exemptions?

Late on April 11, many kinds of electronics were exempted from most tariffs, but it seems that all tariffs will still apply to cameras. Here’s that update (which applies retroactively to April 5) including a list of Harmonised System (HS) codes that have been exempted.

And what are HS codes?

HS codes are internationally standardised product code numbers used to classify traded items. Each one includes at least four digits, but often additional classification numbers follow after that. It’s similar to the Dewey decimal book classification system, but for everything.

Bearing in mind that I am not an import/export expert, computers (8471) and smartphones (8517.13) are in the list, as are TVs and monitors (8524), while currently video cameras and transmission apparatus (8525), lenses (9002) and motorised gimbals (8479.89.94) are not exempt.

As the situation is changeable, please check for the latest news before making any decisions.

Are cameras going up in price by 145%?

Not quite. The tariff is levied on the cost of production, not the cost at retail, and most items sold at retail include a large markup to cover the cost of distribution and sale. Items with a lower profit margin are likely to see larger increases.

It’s also worth noting that different countries are being hit with different tariff values.

How much will prices increase?

Different countries face different tariffs. China faces a 145% tariff (125% + a prior 20%), while Japan faces 24%, Vietnam 46%, South Korea 26%, India 27%, Thailand 37% and Indonesia 32% other countries all sit at 10%, at least for now. Here’s a list from the BBC on the original tariffs that were set, which may indeed return after a 90 day pause.

However, since China dominates a lot of camera, lens and electronics manufacturing, especially at the lower end, tariffs are likely to cause substantial price increases for US customers. If tariffs increase further, there is likely a point at which some goods simply aren’t exported to the US at all, due to uncertainty about the final sale price, or perhaps because the cost will be too high for the market to bear.

Why have these tariffs been introduced?

That the new US tariffs were advertised as “reciprocal” tariffs, but the maths shown indicates that they’re based on simple trade deficits rather than explicit tariffs charged by other governments.

Historically, tariffs have mostly been used to protect domestic industries from cheaper overseas competitors. For example, Australia used to have high tariff rates on foreign-made cars, but those the tariffs were gradually wound back. The Australian car industry, which wasn’t competitive with imported vehicles, collapsed. Here’s a quick history.

However, the costs of making many other goods is so much higher in the US that it simply can’t compete with overseas manufacturers in many industries, no matter how high the tariffs might go. Here’s a video from Lee Morris of Fstoppers, who explains what tariffs are, and how he was unable to make his product (a hot sauce bottle in a box) entirely in the US. And here’s a mathematically minded explanation.

The stated goal of these tariffs is to encourage investment in US manufacturing, but the lead time for competitive factories to spin up is many, many years.

Could some of these products be made in the US?

Potentially — but assembly in the US isn’t enough. If imported parts face a tariff at import, there would still likely be an impact on the final price, and many parts can’t be made in the US — either because quality isn’t high enough or the capacity isn’t there for the quantity needed. Building up domestic US manufacturing to the point where an iPhone could be made would take a decade or more of hard, expensive investment. By one assessment, it either couldn’t be done, or would cost many times more.

Similar issues apply to cars, for which components are made all over North America (also now subject to tariffs) and Boeing planes, assembled in the US from components sourced (at least in part) worldwide.

What does this mean for customers overseas?

It’s going to depend on how manufacturers decide to handle the situation. On one hand, if prices go up massively in the US, sales may drop so much in the US market that a company may struggle to survive. On the other hand, there’s little appetite among overseas customers to subsidize US customers with a global price hike.

Has anyone increased prices already?

Yes. Blackmagic announced their new PYXIS 12K camera at an MSRP of US$4995 (plus local taxes and duties) but over the weekend that was updated to US$6595 — a 32% increase. But it didn’t stay that high; a few days later it was reduced to US$5495, only a 10% increase from the original announcement. Still, this was before the latest tariff increase on China, so it’s hard to say exactly what the price might be next week. (Prices have not changed outside the US.)

Not all products have seen the same percentage increase, though. The Hyperdeck Shuttle 4K Pro has gone from $1495 to $1645 (13%) and the Cintel Scanner G3 HDR+ 8/16 moved from $32045 to $35255 (10%). This is to be expected — different products are likely made in different countries, and may have different profit margins for a variety of reasons.

(To be clear, I’m not criticising Blackmagic for these price increases at all — they just seem to be first to make a pricing change in turbulent economic conditions. If you want to check anything else, here’s a Wayback Machine link to the Blackmagic site in the past, though there aren’t enough snapshots to examine all the price rises and falls. Blackmagic have acknowledged the price rise in the US here.)

So what does that mean for the cost of all our other gear?

Computers, phones, tablets, and storage devices have all been exempted worldwide, but cameras, lenses and other video gear still face tariffs. Many of those are made in China, currently hit with large tariffs, and non-exempt products made in other countries still face a 10% tariff. If they don’t shift further, these price increases are likely to be passed on to consumers sooner or later.

Anything that’s already sitting in a warehouse in the US should be tariff-free, but newly imported goods will be hit with a tariff that will need to be paid. Whether that’s passed on in full or in part, sooner or later, is up to the companies involved.

Time will tell if the tariffs remain in place at these values (they’ve bounced around a lot since their announcement) and it’s hard to predict the outcomes. Certainly it’s possible that the cheapest end of the video market, dominated by China-made gear, will see a substantial price increase. Where there’s more competition and lower margins, the impact of tariffs will be felt more keenly, and items like video game consoles, typically sold at near-cost, could rise a lot.

While impacts will vary widely, costs can be expected to rise across the board. Even US-made goods will be hit, later on, when the impacts on the components that make up those goods are felt.

Conclusion

It’s well beyond the scope of this article to predict the full outcome of these tariffs on the price of our gear or our wider livelihoods. But… (and this is absolutely not financial advice!) if I lived in the US and will need a new camera or lens soon, I’d probably try to buy it before prices go up. Exemptions may be added; they may not. Other regions may introduce their own tariffs; they may not. These are uncertain times. Fingers crossed. Best of luck.